Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 680 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 680 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	TUL 11:50	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 2912 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	TUL 23:20	24%	6%	0.6%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:00 → DAL 07:15WN 1377	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:25 → TUL 09:30WN 4445	4h 30m	96%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	3h 30m Denver	DEN 10:20 → TUL 13:05WN 1762	7h 50m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 59m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 09m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	2h 25m Houston	HOU 15:15 → TUL 16:45WN 2091	6h 35m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 11:05 → TUL 15:45WN 2374	8h 15m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → TUL 00:20 +1WN 696	5h 40m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:50 → HOU 14:25WN 709	50m Houston	HOU 15:15 → TUL 16:45WN 2091	4h 55m	74%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON