Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1666 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1666 MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2939 MEM 19:05 → ATL 21:38 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1666 Delta Flight history →	MEM 05:15	ATL 07:34	4%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1624 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:20	ATL 08:44	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 1149 Delta Flight history →	MEM 09:27	ATL 11:46	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	MEM 10:36	ATL 12:54	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1625 Delta Flight history →	MEM 07:25	ATL 09:45	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1498 Delta	MEM 11:38	ATL 13:59	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	MEM 13:37	ATL 16:02	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	MEM 14:42	ATL 17:05	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	MEM 16:21	ATL 18:51	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 552 Delta Flight history →	MEM 17:52	ATL 20:29	15%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	MEM 19:05	ATL 21:38	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MEM 08:27	ATL 10:51	12%	4%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON