Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 4088 at 06:45, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4088 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 06:45	AUS 08:37	9%	5%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916	2h 50m Chicago	MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727	7h 00m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062	6h 50m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 48m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450	5h 15m	98%	85%
United Details →	MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	7h 16m	97%	84%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15AA 1419	7h 15m	99%	84%
American Details →	MEM 07:13 → DFW 09:14AA 1825	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	6h 12m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 05m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 18:06 → ORD 20:23AA 4457 · flown by Republic	53m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935	5h 53m	71%	50%
Southwest Details →	MEM 20:15 → HOU 21:55WN 2069	1h 00m Houston	HOU 22:55 → AUS 23:55WN 1953	3h 40m	72%	49%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024	1h 05m Denver	DEN 19:45 → AUS 23:05WN 4463	5h 55m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON