tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2913 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2913 Southwest Flight history → MEM 08:25 BNA 09:20 5% 2% 0.5% 89%
WN 410 Southwest Flight history → MEM 17:00 BNA 18:00 28% 7% 0.5% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BNA 10:10DL 1155 4h 55m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 2h 59m Chicago ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 31m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 02m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 07:10 → HOU 08:45WN 2914 2h 15m Houston HOU 11:00 → BNA 12:55WN 1955 5h 45m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → BNA 12:02AA 5082 · flown by PSA 7h 02m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 5h 36m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MEM 16:10 → MDW 17:45WN 3345 55m Chicago MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073 4h 00m 73% 53%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127 50m Dallas DAL 16:40 → BNA 18:30WN 1277 4h 00m 59% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON