Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	BOS 10:01	8%	3%	0.6%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 09:20 → BOS 12:40WN 1405	6h 25m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 30m	98%	88%
American Details →	MEM 06:27 → DCA 09:50AA 5441 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Washington	DCA 12:59 → BOS 14:44AA 4380 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	100%	87%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:18 → BOS 13:33AA 1611	7h 33m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	98%	85%
American Details →	MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	2h 21m New York	LGA 12:09 → BOS 13:33AA 4375 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	98%	84%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Newark	EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669	6h 16m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	5h 39m	67%	54%
American Details →	MEM 14:56 → CLT 17:48AA 2116	46m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	5h 03m	72%	54%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:16 → LGA 15:08DL 4903 · flown by Endeavor	52m New York	LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic	5h 21m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON