tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4698 at 14:35, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4698 Southwest Flight history → MEM 14:35 BWI 17:45 20% 5% 0.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916 2h 05m Chicago MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355 5h 30m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 4h 32m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 5h 41m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 53m 95% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913 2h 45m Nashville BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345 5h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537 3h 30m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 30m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:29 → DTW 13:22DL 3137 1h 43m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 5h 12m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 6h 26m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 18:06 → ORD 20:23AA 4457 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Chicago ORD 21:25 → BWI 00:33 +1AA 4663 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 73% 61%
AmericanDetails → MEM 18:49 → CLT 21:50AA 5269 · flown by PSA 55m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 4h 25m 73% 53%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127 55m Dallas DAL 16:45 → BWI 20:45WN 1284 5h 15m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON