Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 978 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2116 MEM 14:56 → CLT 17:48 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 05:00	CLT 07:46	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2110 American Flight history →	MEM 11:02	CLT 13:50	13%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 16:23	CLT 19:24	18%	7%	1.7%	72%
AA 5269 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 18:49	CLT 21:50	21%	7%	1.4%	67%
AA 2116 American Flight history →	MEM 14:56	CLT 17:48	22%	6%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON