tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4127 at 14:30, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4127 Southwest Flight history → MEM 14:30 DAL 15:50 29% 5% 0.7% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916 3h 10m Chicago MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487 7h 00m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913 3h 00m Nashville BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046 5h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 6h 09m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 6h 36m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 07:10 → HOU 08:45WN 2914 2h 45m Houston HOU 11:30 → DAL 12:40WN 22 5h 30m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 7h 18m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104 6h 04m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 12:15 → HOU 13:50WN 2824 3h 40m Houston HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46 6h 25m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410 55m Nashville BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490 3h 50m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON