Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 472 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 472 MEM 08:51 → DEN 10:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4024 MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 472 United Flight history →	MEM 08:51	DEN 10:35	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 579 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 09:40	DEN 11:05	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 498 United Flight history →	MEM 15:25	DEN 17:09	14%	7%	0.7%	72%
F9 4625 Frontier Flight history →	MEM 19:48	DEN 21:41	18%	7%	0.8%	78%
WN 4024 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 17:10	DEN 18:40	30%	6%	0.5%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON