Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1884 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1884 MEM 05:51 → DFW 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3678 MEM 17:19 → DFW 19:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1884 American Flight history →	MEM 05:51	DFW 07:40	6%	4%	1.0%	92%
AA 1825 American Flight history →	MEM 07:13	DFW 09:14	10%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	MEM 09:29	DFW 11:14	14%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 3676 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:46	DFW 16:35	17%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	MEM 12:03	DFW 13:45	19%	9%	0.9%	54%
AA 3677 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 18:30	DFW 20:22	21%	5%	0.9%	63%
AA 3678 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 17:19	DFW 19:09	22%	6%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON