tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3642 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3642 United flown by Republic Flight history → MEM 06:00 EWR 09:43 5% 2% 1.2% 95%
UA 3699 United flown by Republic Flight history → MEM 16:08 EWR 20:00 23% 6% 1.5% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978 2h 57m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819 6h 37m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 06m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 5h 56m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 5h 52m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371 8h 46m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 48m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 24m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → MEM 09:00 → IAH 10:53UA 4003 · flown by Mesa 2h 53m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 8h 30m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 56m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 5h 18m 59% 47%
AmericanDetails → MEM 14:39 → ORD 16:43AA 3675 · flown by Envoy 53m Chicago ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253 5h 21m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON