Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2914 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2914 MEM 07:10 → HOU 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2069 MEM 20:15 → HOU 21:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2914 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 07:10	HOU 08:45	5%	2%	1.2%	92%
WN 2824 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 12:15	HOU 13:50	21%	4%	1.2%	55%
WN 2069 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 20:15	HOU 21:55	28%	6%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON