tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4013 at 11:40 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4013 Southwest Flight history → MEM 11:40 LAS 13:05 22% 5% 0.7% 71%
G4 54 Allegiant Flight history → MEM 21:28 LAS 23:03 34% 12% 0.9% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916 2h 20m Chicago MDW 09:10 → LAS 11:00WN 2794 7h 45m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 59m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 6h 31m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 42m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic 2h 42m Newark EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864 10h 53m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 30m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 7h 40m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1625 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 8h 53m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → MEM 19:48 → DEN 21:41F9 4625 48m Denver DEN 22:29 → LAS 23:29F9 777 5h 41m 70% 51%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 20:15 → HOU 21:55WN 2069 55m Houston HOU 22:50 → LAS 23:55WN 1058 5h 40m 72% 44%
AmericanDetails → MEM 14:39 → ORD 16:43AA 3675 · flown by Envoy 48m Chicago ORD 17:31 → LAS 19:29AA 3292 6h 50m 68% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON