Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 11:40, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2082 Delta Flight history →	MEM 19:43	LAX 21:40	22%	6%	0.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	9h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 52m	99%	86%
United Details →	MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537	3h 47m Houston	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	9h 06m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	3h 23m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	10h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 50m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 30m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:29 → DTW 13:22DL 3137	2h 28m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 04m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1625	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326	7h 40m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661	7h 34m	59%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON