Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4596 at 06:00, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4596 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 06:00	MCO 09:00	4%	2%	7.9%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	3h 41m	93%	73%
Southwest Details →	MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817	5h 20m	96%	72%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074	5h 57m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	6h 40m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 40m	99%	70%
American Details →	MEM 06:27 → DCA 09:50AA 5441 · flown by PSA	1h 35m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062	6h 24m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913	3h 20m Nashville	BNA 12:40 → MCO 15:40WN 4714	6h 15m	99%	68%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → MCO 14:59DL 2027	7h 27m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024	1h 05m Denver	DEN 19:45 → MCO 01:40 +1WN 1596	7h 30m	70%	44%
Southwest Details →	MEM 16:10 → MDW 17:45WN 3345	50m Chicago	MDW 18:35 → MCO 22:10WN 2820	5h 00m	68%	40%
American Details →	MEM 16:23 → CLT 19:24AA 5357 · flown by PSA	51m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200	4h 37m	66%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON