tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2916 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2916 Southwest Flight history → MEM 05:15 MDW 06:50 6% 2% 0.7% 88%
WN 3345 Southwest Flight history → MEM 16:10 MDW 17:45 24% 6% 0.6% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913 1h 25m Nashville BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575 3h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 41m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 48m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 07:10 → HOU 08:45WN 2914 2h 35m Houston HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019 6h 35m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 09:40 → DEN 11:05WN 579 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601 6h 40m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 54m 96% 77%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 14:35 → BWI 17:45WN 4698 3h 10m Baltimore BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999 7h 25m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127 1h 00m Dallas DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05WN 36 4h 35m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON