Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 05:34, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1340 American Flight history →	MEM 05:34	MIA 09:03	8%	4%	1.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464	5h 45m	96%	78%
American Details →	MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	5h 37m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 42m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	MEM 08:25 → BNA 09:20WN 2913	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	5h 25m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1625	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579	6h 30m	98%	72%
United Details →	MEM 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 537	3h 14m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 47m	99%	71%
American Details →	MEM 06:27 → DCA 09:50AA 5441 · flown by PSA	2h 05m Washington	DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627	7h 11m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 17:19 → DFW 19:09AA 3678 · flown by Envoy	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823	5h 37m	74%	49%
American Details →	MEM 18:49 → CLT 21:50AA 5269 · flown by PSA	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596	4h 57m	71%	48%
American Details →	MEM 16:23 → CLT 19:24AA 5357 · flown by PSA	51m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MIA 22:21AA 2321	4h 58m	66%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON