Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3758 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3758 MEM 06:36 → ORD 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5336 MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3758 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 06:36	ORD 08:45	9%	3%	1.1%	89%
UA 247 United Flight history →	MEM 07:25	ORD 09:30	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 10:32	ORD 12:32	13%	4%	1.3%	87%
UA 5672 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 09:46	ORD 11:57	15%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 3675 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:39	ORD 16:43	24%	7%	1.4%	63%
AA 4457 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 18:06	ORD 20:23	27%	8%	1.4%	54%
UA 5780 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 14:22	ORD 16:29	30%	12%	1.3%	70%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 18:35	ORD 20:40	34%	11%	1.4%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON