tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3879 at 08:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3879 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 08:00 PHX 09:28 8% 2% 0.7% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916 1h 50m Chicago MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016 7h 05m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 6h 43m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 48m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 8h 04m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 57m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 20m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 18m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic 1h 41m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 9h 39m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:11 → PHL 09:44AA 5468 · flown by PSA 1h 21m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 8h 58m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MEM 18:53 → IAH 20:49UA 6250 · flown by Mesa 51m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 5h 32m 70% 55%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 16:10 → MDW 17:45WN 3345 55m Chicago MDW 18:40 → PHX 20:20WN 2862 6h 10m 73% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON