Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2185 United Flight history →	MFR 05:00	DEN 08:33	8%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 1412 United Flight history →	MFR 13:10	DEN 16:43	17%	7%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	1h 06m Portland	PDX 07:20 → DEN 11:03AS 401	4h 48m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 32m	98%	84%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 33m	99%	81%
United Details →	MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24UA 717	1h 07m San Francisco	SFO 08:31 → DEN 12:22UA 2348	5h 22m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	1h 14m Portland	PDX 18:04 → DEN 21:40AS 1627	4h 48m	93%	77%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	50m Phoenix	PHX 08:32 → DEN 11:27AA 1757	5h 12m	82%	71%
Delta Details →	MFR 13:41 → SLC 16:36DL 3801 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	5h 20m	94%	69%
Alaska Details →	MFR 12:30 → PDX 13:34AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	56m Portland	PDX 14:30 → DEN 18:09AS 1809	4h 39m	86%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest	53m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	5h 12m	68%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON