tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3322 at 06:08, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3322 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MFR 06:08 LAX 08:18 9% 6% 0.7% 94%
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record MFR 16:34 LAX 18:35 21% 10% 0.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 12m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24UA 717 1h 26m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:34UA 1896 4h 34m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 6h 51m 95% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 46m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 4h 22m 87% 75%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 2h 43m Seattle SEA 10:03 → LAX 12:56AS 1367 6h 58m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 6h 16m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 4h 17m 72% 59%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → LAX 22:37UA 2850 4h 02m 65% 48%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 3h 54m 53% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON