tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6401 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6401 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MFR 05:15 PHX 07:42 9% 6% 0.7% 94%
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MFR 13:23 PHX 15:51 19% 9% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 57m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 25m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 50m San Francisco SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347 7h 28m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Seattle SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449 8h 44m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24UA 717 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → PHX 12:14UA 500 6h 14m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 46m Portland PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349 4h 34m 87% 75%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 2h 49m Denver DEN 19:32 → PHX 20:32UA 1729 7h 22m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 2h 39m Seattle SEA 09:59 → PHX 13:01AS 593 7h 03m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574 4h 28m 53% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON