tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3207 at 06:11, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3207 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MFR 06:11 SAN 08:24 13% 5% 0.7% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 53m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m Portland PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577 4h 50m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → MFR 12:20 → SEA 14:00DL 3878 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Seattle SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613 5h 45m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343 6h 42m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Phoenix PHX 10:30 → SAN 11:47AA 2477 6h 32m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 5h 56m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 16:43 → SAN 18:35UA 1561 4h 24m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → SAN 22:49UA 1863 4h 14m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON