Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 717 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 717 MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1754 MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 717 United Flight history →	MFR 06:00	SFO 07:24	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 5883 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 18:35	SFO 20:07	29%	17%	0.9%	53%
UA 1754 United Flight history →	MFR 14:11	SFO 15:35	37%	14%	0.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON