Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3769 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	SLC 08:08	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3801 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 13:41	SLC 16:36	11%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	1h 38m Portland	PDX 07:52 → SLC 10:45AS 2333 · flown by Horizon	4h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 21m	99%	83%
United Details →	MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24UA 717	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 08:40 → SLC 11:49UA 5605 · flown by SkyWest	4h 49m	96%	83%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	97%	82%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	57m Phoenix	PHX 08:39 → SLC 11:37AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	89%	81%
Alaska Details →	MFR 12:30 → PDX 13:34AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	56m Portland	PDX 14:30 → SLC 17:29AS 3120 · flown by SkyWest	3h 59m	86%	76%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	1h 28m Seattle	SEA 08:48 → SLC 11:55AS 360	4h 57m	99%	73%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 40m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 46m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	4h 24m	65%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON