Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5035 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 5035 MHT 05:38 → CLT 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 5463 MHT 17:10 → CLT 19:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5035 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 05:38	CLT 08:03	5%	2%	1.1%	93%
AA 5294 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 12:07	CLT 14:36	15%	5%	1.0%	62%
AA 5463 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 17:10	CLT 19:40	20%	7%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON