tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2919 at 12:30, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2919 Southwest Flight history → MHT 12:30 MCO 15:35 26% 8% 16.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MHT 05:05 → BWI 06:40WN 4657 1h 25m Baltimore BWI 08:05 → MCO 10:20WN 986 5h 15m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → MHT 05:38 → CLT 08:03AA 5035 · flown by PSA 2h 06m Charlotte CLT 10:09 → MCO 11:57AA 2074 6h 19m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:55AA 5160 · flown by PSA 3h 30m Washington DCA 11:25 → MCO 13:51AA 2062 7h 51m 98% 68%
SouthwestDetails → MHT 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2732 3h 40m Chicago MDW 11:00 → MCO 14:35WN 2818 8h 35m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 3h 02m Philadelphia PHL 12:16 → MCO 14:59AA 2065 7h 24m 96% 64%
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 63%
SouthwestDetails → MHT 09:20 → BWI 11:00WN 2918 1h 30m Baltimore BWI 12:30 → MCO 14:50WN 4374 5h 30m 97% 63%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 1h 20m Chicago ORD 10:30 → MCO 14:20AA 2066 7h 06m 96% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON