Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2732 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2732 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 06:00	MDW 07:20	4%	1%	0.7%	96%
WN 2920 Southwest Flight history →	MHT 19:00	MDW 20:30	17%	5%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Manchester). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MHT 05:05 → BWI 06:40WN 4657	2h 55m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	6h 30m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MHT 09:20 → BWI 11:00WN 2918	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	5h 10m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	MHT 11:30 → BWI 13:10WN 1121	2h 55m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	6h 40m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	MHT 13:30 → BWI 15:05WN 868	3h 55m Baltimore	BWI 19:00 → MDW 20:05WN 1005	7h 35m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	MHT 17:10 → BWI 18:50WN 976	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	5h 50m	93%	69%
Southwest Details →	MHT 12:30 → MCO 15:35WN 2919	2h 35m Orlando	MCO 18:10 → MDW 20:10WN 2659	8h 40m	97%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON