Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1367 MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:07 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:01	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:10	ATL 09:10	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	9%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 10:40	ATL 12:48	13%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 512 American Flight history →	MIA 07:45	ATL 09:48	16%	5%	0.8%	87%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 08:30	ATL 10:50	20%	9%	1.0%	82%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:02	ATL 14:05	21%	6%	1.2%	82%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:25	ATL 21:42	28%	11%	1.0%	59%
DL 1579 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:00	ATL 18:25	28%	11%	0.9%	67%
DL 1632 Delta Flight history →	MIA 20:30	ATL 22:54	29%	12%	1.1%	37%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	30%	12%	1.0%	59%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:09	ATL 16:13	31%	11%	1.9%	75%
F9 3059 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:19	ATL 13:31	32%	13%	1.3%	73%
AA 659 American Flight history →	MIA 21:56	ATL 23:59	36%	12%	1.0%	64%
AA 535 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	ATL 20:25	40%	16%	1.0%	30%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	ATL 22:09	41%	15%	1.1%	57%
F9 4405 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 17:28	ATL 20:00	43%	22%	1.2%	57%
AA 1367 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	ATL 18:07	44%	18%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON