Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1417 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 1417 MIA 08:05 → AUS 10:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 336 MIA 17:00 → AUS 19:05 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1417 American Flight history →	MIA 08:05	AUS 10:05	14%	3%	1.0%	88%
AA 620 American Flight history →	MIA 09:25	AUS 11:25	18%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 1411 American Flight history →	MIA 14:30	AUS 16:35	33%	15%	4.9%	53%
AA 1427 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	AUS 23:59	33%	10%	1.2%	60%
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	33%	11%	1.3%	73%
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	33%	11%	1.2%	68%
WN 336 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 17:00	AUS 19:05	45%	13%	0.7%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON