Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4042 at 20:40, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:40	AVL 22:47	28%	8%	1.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 07:57 → CLT 10:10AA 3085	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	6h 22m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → AVL 11:08DL 573	5h 08m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 20m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 08:40 → LGA 11:43AA 1046	1h 32m New York	LGA 13:15 → AVL 15:27AA 4342 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → AVL 16:12DL 2037	5h 32m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	5h 46m	95%	73%
American Details →	MIA 11:59 → DCA 14:44AA 1606	2h 44m Washington	DCA 17:28 → AVL 19:12AA 4736 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 19:25 → ATL 21:42DL 1323	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	4h 21m	75%	57%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	58m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → AVL 17:55AA 6032 · flown by Piedmont	4h 25m	73%	46%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	49m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → AVL 18:10DL 5121 · flown by Endeavor	4h 02m	56%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON