Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1272 at 20:44, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1272 American Flight history →	MIA 20:44	BDL 23:55	34%	11%	1.3%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → BDL 12:00WN 427	5h 40m	98%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 22m Washington	DCA 10:03 → BDL 11:35AA 4754 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082	6h 45m	99%	86%
American Details →	MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 11:51 → BDL 13:50AA 1448	7h 29m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	7h 56m	99%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 12:51 → BDL 14:11AA 6035 · flown by Piedmont	7h 26m	98%	81%
American Details →	MIA 08:28 → ORD 10:59AA 1431	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 13:28 → BDL 16:52AA 3409 · flown by Envoy	8h 24m	96%	80%
American Details →	MIA 08:02 → DCA 10:38AA 1299	2h 21m Washington	DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA	6h 25m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → BDL 00:20 +1WN 1879	5h 30m	73%	55%
American Details →	MIA 13:45 → PHL 16:43AA 1684	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 17:45 → BDL 19:06AA 5857 · flown by Piedmont	5h 21m	73%	45%
American Details →	MIA 15:30 → DFW 17:50AA 1199	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:49 → BDL 23:31AA 1425	8h 01m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON