Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3427 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:56	BHM 23:59	18%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 15:50	BHM 16:55	26%	9%	4.5%	43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	90%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	7h 21m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 04m	99%	87%
American Details →	MIA 08:28 → ORD 10:59AA 1431	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:01 → BHM 15:01AA 3971 · flown by Envoy	7h 33m	96%	83%
American Details →	MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → BHM 12:09AA 4932 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	6h 42m	98%	81%
American Details →	MIA 08:40 → CLT 10:54AA 3044	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 13:40 → BHM 14:14AA 5075 · flown by PSA	6h 34m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	6h 53m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → BHM 22:10AA 5267 · flown by PSA	6h 31m	70%	53%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	59m Houston	IAH 19:55 → BHM 21:53UA 4022 · flown by Mesa	6h 00m	71%	52%
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 20:15 → BHM 22:00WN 4390	6h 00m	69%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON