Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1521 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1521 MIA 08:21 → BNA 09:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4799 MIA 16:00 → BNA 17:25 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1521 American Flight history →	MIA 08:21	BNA 09:45	12%	4%	1.0%	93%
WN 2922 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 11:40	BNA 13:00	28%	7%	0.9%	63%
AA 1721 American Flight history →	MIA 22:57	BNA 00:16	31%	11%	1.1%	49%
AA 2833 American Flight history →	MIA 20:03	BNA 21:26	36%	11%	1.4%	65%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	MIA 15:29	BNA 16:52	36%	15%	4.6%	38%
AA 3208 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	BNA 17:56	38%	13%	1.2%	60%
WN 4799 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 16:00	BNA 17:25	44%	15%	0.9%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON