Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1642 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1642 MIA 08:30 → CHS 10:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1657 MIA 17:42 → CHS 19:33 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1642 American Flight history →	MIA 08:30	CHS 10:22	17%	5%	1.9%	80%
AA 2948 American Flight history →	MIA 22:16	CHS 23:59	33%	9%	1.4%	59%
AA 1657 American Flight history →	MIA 17:42	CHS 19:33	35%	11%	1.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON