Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4057 at 15:31 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 4057 MIA 15:31 → CLE 18:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 4135 MIA 20:32 → CLE 23:38 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 15:31	CLE 18:38	29%	9%	4.6%	81%
AA 363 American Flight history →	MIA 20:45	CLE 23:48	34%	13%	1.2%	67%
F9 4135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 20:32	CLE 23:38	41%	14%	1.6%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON