Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2187 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2187 MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3037 MIA 14:53 → CLT 17:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2187 American Flight history →	MIA 06:21	CLT 08:35	8%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 3044 American Flight history →	MIA 08:40	CLT 10:54	13%	5%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
AA 3085 American Flight history →	MIA 07:57	CLT 10:10	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 840 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	CLT 12:05	16%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	25%	12%	4.4%	78%
AA 1212 American Flight history →	MIA 22:25	CLT 00:35	26%	10%	1.0%	59%
AA 400 American Flight history →	MIA 17:23	CLT 19:45	27%	12%	1.0%	67%
AA 3131 American Flight history →	MIA 19:10	CLT 21:26	29%	12%	1.1%	65%
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	31%	13%	1.1%	66%
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:53	CLT 17:12	33%	18%	3.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON