Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4163 at 10:32 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4163 MIA 10:32 → CMH 13:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 2925 MIA 12:50 → CMH 15:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4163 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 10:32	CMH 13:25	15%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 3550 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:45	CMH 00:37	22%	6%	0.9%	81%
AA 3660 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:50	CMH 22:39	26%	7%	0.8%	73%
WN 2925 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 12:50	CMH 15:35	30%	10%	1.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON