Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4121 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 08:41	CVG 11:34	11%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	24%	7%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 06:40 → BOS 10:06AA 815	1h 49m Boston	BOS 11:55 → CVG 14:30AA 4760 · flown by Republic	7h 50m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 25m	97%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → JFK 09:05AA 1040	2h 05m New York	JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21AA 4609 · flown by Republic	7h 21m	98%	86%
United Details →	MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864	3h 10m Newark	EWR 13:21 → CVG 15:33UA 3473 · flown by Republic	8h 26m	99%	86%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → CVG 14:25AA 4720 · flown by Republic	7h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149	5h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 51m	99%	83%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 43m Houston	IAH 12:25 → CVG 15:57UA 2364	7h 09m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 22:45 → CVG 00:30 +1WN 4435	5h 40m	64%	51%
American Details →	MIA 13:45 → PHL 16:43AA 1684	57m Philadelphia	PHL 17:40 → CVG 19:42AA 5534 · flown by PSA	5h 57m	68%	48%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	57m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → CVG 22:26UA 5785 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	66%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON