Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 491 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3138 MIA 15:30 → DCA 18:13 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 1299 American Flight history →	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:38	12%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	MIA 09:59	DCA 12:37	17%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 1606 American Flight history →	MIA 11:59	DCA 14:44	18%	8%	1.2%	87%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	19%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	MIA 13:42	DCA 16:26	26%	13%	4.1%	70%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	27%	10%	1.4%	76%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	29%	11%	1.6%	74%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	29%	13%	1.3%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	31%	13%	1.3%	51%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DCA 18:13	32%	15%	4.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON