Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2045 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 2045 MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2926 MIA 16:20 → DEN 18:40 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2045 United Flight history →	MIA 07:37	DEN 10:00	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1739 American Flight history →	MIA 08:57	DEN 11:19	14%	5%	0.8%	94%
F9 1279 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DEN 08:23	14%	5%	1.1%	85%
UA 2852 United Flight history →	MIA 15:44	DEN 18:23	28%	10%	2.4%	82%
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MIA 20:31	DEN 22:54	31%	10%	1.2%	65%
WN 2926 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 16:20	DEN 18:40	52%	13%	0.8%	25%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 18m	90%	72%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	6h 17m	88%	70%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:26 → DEN 15:30AA 1832	6h 30m	89%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON