Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1226 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 1226 MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2823 MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	9%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	11%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	16%	5%	1.0%	83%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:20	DFW 08:37	16%	7%	1.1%	77%
AA 3081 American Flight history →	MIA 10:05	DFW 12:17	20%	6%	1.1%	77%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	21%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 3019 American Flight history →	MIA 12:18	DFW 14:39	21%	10%	1.9%	80%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	DFW 00:59	28%	10%	1.5%	55%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	MIA 14:29	DFW 16:51	29%	15%	2.2%	68%
AA 3260 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	DFW 19:56	32%	12%	1.3%	59%
AA 1199 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DFW 17:50	33%	15%	2.7%	57%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	DFW 21:45	34%	11%	1.5%	58%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	MIA 16:39	DFW 19:04	34%	14%	1.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON