Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1864 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1864 MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 322 MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1864 United Flight history →	MIA 07:07	EWR 10:11	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 408 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	EWR 11:54	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1822 American Flight history →	MIA 08:25	EWR 11:30	12%	4%	1.1%	86%
UA 2080 United Flight history →	MIA 11:12	EWR 14:23	20%	8%	1.0%	79%
UA 2029 United Flight history →	MIA 20:40	EWR 23:59	29%	10%	1.3%	72%
AA 1823 American Flight history →	MIA 13:31	EWR 16:39	29%	12%	2.8%	79%
AA 2008 American Flight history →	MIA 22:00	EWR 00:59	35%	9%	1.6%	62%
UA 2691 United Flight history →	MIA 17:22	EWR 20:37	36%	11%	1.3%	56%
AA 322 American Flight history →	MIA 19:48	EWR 22:53	38%	12%	1.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON