Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3515 MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3517 MIA 18:05 → EYW 19:06 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3515 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 09:55	EYW 10:55	12%	3%	4.1%	98%worse than usual
AA 3518 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:10	EYW 13:14	20%	4%	6.0%	89%
AA 3517 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 18:05	EYW 19:06	20%	5%	11.1%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON