tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 16% 8% 2.4% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 6h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 31m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 7h 42m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 06m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:30 → ORD 15:13UA 1983 2h 59m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 8h 52m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 2h 47m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 8h 35m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400 46m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 4h 42m 63% 49%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 50m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 9h 01m 59% 47%
FrontierDetails → MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:03 → IAD 22:55F9 3692 5h 27m 59% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON