Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2606 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2606 MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1931 MIA 15:30 → IAH 17:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2606 United Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	9%	4%	0.8%	100%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	11%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 603 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	IAH 08:50	12%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 1918 American Flight history →	MIA 08:38	IAH 10:29	15%	6%	0.9%	79%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:30	IAH 08:24	16%	8%	1.3%	85%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	17%	8%	1.9%	87%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	28%	13%	1.1%	74%
AA 2541 American Flight history →	MIA 19:42	IAH 21:33	29%	15%	1.3%	65%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 22:15	IAH 23:59	30%	12%	1.1%	70%
AA 1931 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	IAH 17:22	33%	17%	4.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON