Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3897 at 21:58, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:58	ILM 23:59	20%	6%	1.2%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 33m	99%	90%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → BOS 10:06AA 815	2h 19m Boston	BOS 12:25 → ILM 14:39AA 4738 · flown by Republic	7h 59m	100%	89%
American Details →	MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 12m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → ILM 15:01AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	8h 21m	99%	84%
American Details →	MIA 07:57 → CLT 10:10AA 3085	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	6h 22m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 23m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 56m	96%	80%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	8h 12m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	4h 56m	73%	61%
American Details →	MIA 19:10 → CLT 21:26AA 3131	59m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	4h 23m	70%	52%
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → ILM 23:57AA 1841	7h 18m	70%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON