tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1938 American Flight history → MIA 15:25 IND 18:20 30% 14% 4.1% 67%
AA 2518 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 IND 23:50 34% 11% 1.3% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:00 → JFK 09:05AA 1040 2h 47m New York JFK 11:52 → IND 14:14AA 4385 · flown by Republic 8h 14m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960 6h 10m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 36m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 3h 31m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 8h 55m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491 3h 18m Washington DCA 11:59 → IND 13:56AA 4407 · flown by Republic 7h 56m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 43m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:55 → JFK 13:04AA 1052 2h 26m New York JFK 15:30 → IND 18:02AA 4449 · flown by Republic 8h 07m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:02 → DCA 10:38AA 1299 3h 57m Washington DCA 14:35 → IND 16:35AA 4452 · flown by Republic 8h 33m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624 55m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → IND 00:20 +1WN 4216 5h 30m 54% 42%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:30 → DFW 19:56AA 3260 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766 6h 28m 59% 40%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374 55m Dallas DAL 19:55 → IND 23:05WN 2250 6h 05m 44% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON