Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3609 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3609 MIA 08:02 → JAX 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 416 MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3609 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 08:02	JAX 09:27	11%	3%	1.2%	97%
AA 3893 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:55	JAX 21:22	30%	10%	2.3%	68%
AA 3605 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 17:39	JAX 19:07	32%	10%	1.8%	49%
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	33%	14%	2.2%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON