Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1040 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1040 MIA 06:00 → JFK 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1922 MIA 18:33 → JFK 21:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1040 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	JFK 09:05	6%	2%	1.0%	90%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	7%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1051 American Flight history →	MIA 08:22	JFK 11:30	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 1052 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	JFK 13:04	13%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 1520 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:25	JFK 14:31	18%	6%	1.2%	85%
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	25%	9%	1.5%	64%
AA 642 American Flight history →	MIA 14:00	JFK 17:18	30%	13%	2.1%	71%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	31%	13%	1.9%	73%
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	32%	11%	1.4%	56%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:59	JFK 23:21	32%	11%	1.5%	53%
AA 1202 American Flight history →	MIA 16:03	JFK 19:15	35%	12%	1.4%	55%
AA 1922 American Flight history →	MIA 18:33	JFK 21:45	35%	12%	1.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON